Trumpism has become toxic in Europe—and progressives must seize the moment
- Viktor Mak
- 4 days ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 1 day ago
Given recent turbulence, the MAGA bandwagon is becoming an increasingly rough ride for Europe's far-right actors. New research suggests Trump's influence on populist movements is showing signs of unraveling. In this post, ECDA Co-director Viktor Mák explores the shifting landscape, the challenges for European progressives, and the urgent need for a bold, results-focused and values-driven response.
“It has been said something as small as the flutter of a butterfly's wing can ultimately cause a typhoon halfway around the world."
Donald Trump has been compared to many things but he is certainly no butterfly. Accordingly, his second presidency has had an impact on national politics around the world.
Now that we have seen a few elections around the globe since he took office and gained insights about public attitudes among Europeans from large surveys, we can see that it’s not an easy time to be a Trump supporter, especially in Europe. The European populists and far-right forces who hoped his victory might boost MAGA-style politics across the board are having a rude awakening.
We saw far-right populists around Europe trying to outdo one another for Trump’s favour, imitating his demagogic style and repeating his soundbites. Viktor Orbán even went so far as to give Hungary’s EU presidency the headline “Make Europe Great Again”. But that seems to have been a serious miscalculation.
It’s no surprise transatlantic populist alliances are under strain. In recent months and weeks we’ve seen ongoing chaos around policy and economic decisions on issues like international trade which, beyond the uncertainty they create, threaten to do real damage to European livelihoods. And we’ve also seen an escalation in Trump’s bullying rhetoric and style of politics. European citizens are keenly aware of both the political dysfunction and the concrete risks to their own interests.
Turning a corner?
According to new research by ECDA and Datapraxis, Trump is not just deeply unpopular in Europe—he is seen as a real threat, sometimes almost on a par with Putin. And surveys also show that closeness to Trump and his style of politics could be becoming a liability in Europe, particularly for populists in Spain, Italy and the UK.
Trump is not just deeply unpopular in Europe—he is seen as a real threat, sometimes almost on a par with Putin.
For progressives, it could be tempting to stand on the sidelines and watch as Trump’s free-falling popularity tarnishes those in Europe who cheered him on. But this would be a big mistake. Why? Because while the evidence suggests Europeans are turning away from Trumpian politics, it’s less clear where they will end up. Survey data show progressive parties still struggle to assert ownership over some of the issues that citizens feel most strongly about—like the cost of living. We still have a long way to go to convince a majority of European voters that progressives have solutions that can work.
No time for complacency
In the latest elections in Australia and Canada, we saw voters opt for established political parties over Trump-like populist figures. There are indications we could be moving away from the anti-incumbency trend seen in recent years, towards more stability, with voters rejecting radical upheaval.
But there’s two problems with that hypothesis. For one, we’re seeing an alarming rise in mistrust of politicians and political institutions among the public, leading to disengagement and eroding public debate. For another, the current incumbents in many European countries have also seen their popularity plummet to new lows.
It’s clear that Europeans are not happy with the leaders they have. But this vacuum does not provide automatic opportunities for progressives. We need to create and seize them. So how can we step up?
Press pause
Heading into the summer, it’s a time when some of us might have the luxury of a few moments to pause, reflect and take stock—this is vital when making our plans and strategic choices for the weeks and months that lie ahead.
While these are testing times, there’s no shortage of places to look for inspiration. The determination of the student protestors in Serbia. The courage of the demonstrators who took to the streets in their tens of thousands in Budapest to defy a ban on the city’s Pride march. All around us, we can draw on the strength of progressive forces taking a stand for their principles, and refusing to back down.
And it’s not just their bravery that should inspire us but their methods, strategies, and ways of communicating too. It's not enough to talk about what we oppose or to provide technical policy reforms. We need effective, unifying messages that keep it simple and get to the point. We should dare to reclaim the symbols and language populists have tried to appropriate. And we must acknowledge people’s felt experiences and connect our visions of a better future to their everyday lives.
This is what Zohran Mamdani’s campaign, which captivated people around the world from Brooklyn to New Delhi, succeeded in doing through its bold, striking messages that focused on the issues that mattered to voters. It is what municipal candidates in Zagreb did—setting out a clear roadmap for their plans for the city and engaging in regular, open communication with their supporters to encourage them to buy into their project—gaining a record number of donations in the process.
We must acknowledge people’s felt experiences and connect our visions of a better future to their everyday lives.
Just as important as the message itself is getting the medium right. Selecting the right tool or platform as a vehicle, and getting the timing and audience right for maximum impact. ECDA is working with progressive forces around Europe to help craft messages and build digital organizing strategies that work.
Divisions among the right will never be enough to see us through. Nor will pointing out their failings or saying “we told you so.” If we want people to walk beside us down a different path we need to speak with honesty and clarity. Engaged supporters are not just followers—they play an active part in finding the way and driving us forward.
It’s time to throw all the doors and windows wide open—and invite the world in.
Photo by Michael Reeve via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0
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